An intuitive introduction of Probability_Prof.Karl Schmedders #Week3

Birthday Problem

How many people have to be present so that the answer to Q1 exceeds 50%?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

 

Complement Rule

P(A) = 1- P(A여집합)

 

The Monty Hall Problem

-> Always change the door to yield better chances of winning the goat

 

Structuring Risk

(Applications)  대기업의 신용등급 default risk

X 10% risk losing money

Y 10% rish losing money

 

Implact of Dependece

: Finance fails terribly when the risk that y

ou pull have a strong dependence and 

  this particular issue contributed greatly to the financial crisis of 2007 to 2009.

 

The Prosecutor's Fallacy

--> Confusing conditional probabilities of P(A|B) and P(B|A)

 

The Sad Story of Sally Cark

1st mistake : Independence

2nd mistake : The Prosecutor's Fallacy